The Dire Consequences of Enabling a Military Dictatorship in Libya
It has been almost four years since the signing of the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA), on 17th December 2015[i]. The agreement which many hoped[ii] will end the crisis and resume the peaceful process of rebuilding Libya’s State institutions, but it did not. Since then, the situation has gotten worse and more complicated, and peace and reconciliation seem more elusive.
The human suffering, in terms of lives lost in the armed clashes and other violent acts, such as terrorist attacks and extrajudicial killings, is immense. Over 21’000 people were killed or injured[iii] since the signing of the LPA, and the number could be much higher, given the fact that not all casualties are reported, the pro Haftar camp do not report the figures of their casualties[iv]. There is no official entity in Libya documenting and reporting on the casualties of the clashes. Even the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and the World Health Organization (WHO) stopped their reports on casualties of war in Libya[v]. On top of this, the failure to resolve the conflict resulted in considerable damage to the economy, to property and to infrastructure, and most worrying is the damage to the social fabric of Libya’s population, creating animosities between communities, towns, and tribes. Repugnant hate speech dominates Libyan discourse, on social media and on television broadcast.
The resolution to Libya’s crisis has to be political, no doubt about that. But political agreements require parties to negotiate in good faith, to reach an agreement, not to use negotiations as a means to gain time to create “facts” on the ground. What transpired over the past four years is a proof that one party to the LPA had no intention of ending the war.
There were two parties to the LPA, the General National Congress (GNC), and the House of Representatives (HoR)[vi]. The General National Congress abided by the LPA and became the High Council of State (HCS)[vii], a consultative body, with no legislative authority, it is one of the three state institutions stemming from the Political Agreement, the other two are the House of Representatives and the Presidential Council of the Government of National Accord (GNA). The House, to date has not complied with the Political Agreement, has not amended the Constitutional Declaration[viii], nor has it granted a vote of confidence to the Government of National Accord, it does not recognize it.
The House of Representatives obstruction of the implementation of the LPA, is the main factor for the failure to end the crisis, and thus is responsible for the carnage. The main reason the HoR’s refusal to join the LPA because it assigned the Presidential Council of the GNA the functions of the supreme commander of the Libyan Army[ix]. This placed Haftar under civilian authority, which is unacceptable to Haftar. The HoR is under the control of Haftar, it is doing his bidding. One famous, or rather infamous moto of HoR members is “Haftar is a red-line”, holding the entire population hostage for the sake of unconstitutional, and uncustomary in democratic political systems, demands of one man.
It has been more than eight years since the downfall of Colonel Gaddafi, and no political leadership nor a cohesive central government has emerged to end the chaotic situation. People within, and outside, Libya, are concerned, and rightly so, about this state of lawlessness.
Some think what Libya needs is a “strongman”, which is a euphemism for a dictator. Aside from the immoral, hypocritical act of enabling a dictatorship, or turning a blind eye to its violations, is returning Libya to the rule of a dictatorship the solution to bring “stability”? Four decades of dictatorship, aren’t they enough to prove the futility of pondering such a notion? Gaddafi’s despotic rule left Libya in ruins. Apart from the security apparatus[x], every public institution and sector was dysfunctional.
Dictatorships, because they rule through brute force policy, regularly demeaning & terrorizing the populace, are incapable to earn the trust of the ordinary citizen, thus will not motivate a productive economy. To control the population, they need to pay oversized armies, militias and security forces, at the expense of maintaining vital services such as, health and education. Depriving the society to collectively engage in the public affairs, through independent civil society institutions and political parties, hinders, actually blocks, the development and emergence of leaders capable of leading by ideas of prosperity. The four decades of Gaddafi’s despotic rule destroyed Libya’s public institutions.
Khalifa Haftar wants to implement a military rule[xi], and many of his decisions so far are a copy-cat of Gaddafi’s actions. Haftar has no respect for democracy[xii]. On record, he dismissed democracy as being unsuitable for Libya. He thinks that “democracy might be suitable for the West, but not for Arab societies”[xiii]. In the areas under his control, he replaced elected municipality councils with military officers, appointing them as mayors.
His record of disrespect of the rule of law, disregard to national and international laws and norms is very clear:
- Ordering his subordinates to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity[xiv],
- No one in his camp accused, or suspected, of committing grave violations has been held responsible,
- Refusing to handover one of his field commanders accused of war crimes[xv] to the International Criminal Court (ICC), and
- Threatening Europe, in February 2015, to release terrorists and send them off from the 2000 Km coast[xvi].
Those sponsoring Haftar as a “strongman” capable of bringing stability to Libya, should look at his record in Benghazi. More than two years, since he declared “the liberation” of the city, it is far from stable or secure. Violent crimes, especially abductions of people and often their bodies end up in tipping sites or on the side of deserted roads, are plaguing the city. Often corpses of victims show signs of torture and redden with bullet holes in the head and chest, indicating they were killed in an execution style.
Seven women, six Sudanese nationals and one Libyan, were kidnapped last October in Benghazi. The bodies of two of them were found dumped, and both had signs of torture and gun wounds[xvii]. The remaining five are still missing. So is Ms. Sergewa still missing almost five months after she was abducted from her home by gunmen in the early hours of 17th July of this year. Ms. Sergewa is a member of the House of Representatives, and she was abducted a couple of hours after she voiced her objection to the attack on Tripoli in a live TV discussion[xviii].
Last week, December 4th, marked eight months since the start of the attack on Tripoli, launched by Khalifa Haftar on 4th April. Haftar promised his followers that the campaign will take, quote “two weeks to liberate Tripoli”, end quote. Eight months of stalemate protracted by outside influence resulted in a staggering number of casualties. According to Mr. Ghassan Salamé[xix], the Head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya, 2’200 were killed, among them 200 civilians, and more than 146’000 have been displaced[xx]. According to a report by Human Rights Solidarity, the number of people killed in and around Tripoli, from April to end of September, is over 1’300 people, and number of those injured close to 4’800, among them about 380 civilians, killed or injured [xxi]. And the number of the casualties is most likely much higher, since Haftar’s camp does not report on its casualties.
Haftar could not have continued this campaign over five years of carnage, without the direct support and involvement of third parties, specifically the governments of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, and France. Analyzing the reports of the UN Security Council Panel of Experts on Libya[xxii], it is very evident that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been the most persistent violator of weapons embargo measures imposed by the UN Security Sanctions on Libya since 2011. The UAE not only exported weapons, but also operates a forward airbase in Libya, and it is directly involved in the war in Libya, with its military planes, drones and personnel.
The violence in Libya, since the derailment of the political process in 2014, had its impact on Europe. Since 2014, the number of illegal migrants arriving at Europe’s southern shores, along the Central Mediterranean Route (CMR), grew almost five folds[xxiii], from 40’000 in 2013 to 181’000 in 2016. Indeed, the numbers of arrivals along the CMR have decreased since 2017 after the implementation of Europe’s strict measures to contain migration across the Mediterranean, but at a high cost to human lives. The ratio of deaths per arrivals, for those making the journey, has increased from 1 in 42 between January and July 2017 to 1 in 18 during the same period in 2018, making the journey across the Mediterranean increasingly dangerous[xxiv].
The influx of migrants since 2014 is due to the breakdown of security in Libya[xxv]. Europe’s policy of containment of migrants & refugees, by returning them to the war-torn Libya, undermined Europe’s obligations under international refugee law and tarnished its image of respecting & protecting human rights[xxvi], with headlines like “Migrant Containment at all Costs: What is Left of European Humanity?”, “Europe’s Determination to Halt African Migration Makes Friends of Dictators” and “EU’s Efforts to Prevent Migration from Libya does not Respect or Value Lives”. The controversial policies of containment of illegal migration across the Mediterranean, led to rapid increase in number of migrants stranded in Libya, which forced the Interior Ministry of the Government of National Accord to reopen 13 detention centers of migrants, it closed in the first half of 2018.
The current conflict, the attempt of Haftar and his allies, foreign and domestic, to take control of Tripoli could drag for months, and will not end there, there several other areas which oppose the return of dictatorship in Libya. With increased involvement by the Russian mercenaries, Haftar and his patrons are at a race with time, to move the fighting from the outskirts of Tripoli, to deep inside dense urban areas of the city, to blow the chances of convening the Berlin conference, exactly as they did with attacking Tripoli 10 days before convening the National Conference in Ghadames. Mr. Salamé, warned in a recent interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera[xxvii], that it is very possible “… that the preparation of the Berlin international conference on Libya will be impaired by the sudden entry of Khalifa Haftar’s troops in Tripoli. It would be a bloodbath, a terrible situation of street-to-street battles, with unspeakable massacres and destruction in the heart of urban areas”. Haftar’s forces is made up of a coalition of tribal militias, extremist Salafi militia, followers of the old regime, and mercenaries from Sudan, Chad and Russia. Considering Haftar’s militias track record of grave violations of International Humanitarian and Human Rights Laws, in Benghazi, Derna and Merziq, possibilities of mass massacres are very high.
Haftar’s attack on Tripoli and other Western cities of Libya, engaged some of the forces which fought the terrorist group ISIS, which gave the latter to regroup and carry out attacks in the south and central regions of Libya. The four areas, which saw reemergence of terrorist activities by Daesh (ISIS) group[xxviii], three of them are within Haftar’s “controlled areas”, and one is close to al-Khadim airbase, operated and controlled by UAE.
The continuation of the conflict in Libya is harming the stability of Europe[xxix]. The numbers of migrants are predicted to increase, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts as much as 200 million people will be displaced due to climate change effects and conflicts[xxx]. According to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), the effects of climate change on conflicts and displacement of people have already started in the Sub Sahara Region[xxxi].
The first step to resolve Libya’s crisis is to stop external interference, all external meddling by all parties. The European Union has the soft power to stop the interference and to influence the decisions of the Libyan spoilers. But in order to do that, Europe needs to approach the Libyan issue with a unified strategy[xxxii].
There is so much potential of benefits from a constructive partnership with the people of Libya. The turmoil in the whole region is a result of a policy of dealing with dictators and oppressive regimes, and not the legitimate representatives of the peoples of the region. They may win this and that, a project here and there, but it is not a sustainable policy, and definitely won’t work with one who is, even before getting power, is threatening to use the suffering and lives of desperate people as a bargaining chip[xxxiii].
Human Rights Solidarity
Tripoli – Libya
En
[i] The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL): “The Libyan Political Agreement”, final version as signed on 17th December 2015.
[ii] Aljazeera English: “Rival Libyan factions sign UN-backed peace deal”, 17th December 2015.
[iii] Close to 7’300 people were killed and approx. 13’000 injured. According to Libya Body Count organization (link), which reported number of deaths only, in 2016 about 1’523 were killed and an estimated 3’600 were injured. According to Human Rights Solidarity (link); in 2017 (1849 killed and 2350 injured), in 2018 (1835 killed and 2011 injured), and in 2019 (2086 killed and 5136 injured). Libya Body Count stopped reporting end of 2016.
[iv] On its report, (link), dated 5th September 2018, the Panel of Experts on Libya, established pursuant to resolution 1973 (2011), included (on page 85/253) a copy of a page from a report made by the LNA’s Benghazi Area Operations Command, on their casualties from 14th May 2015 to 28th December 2017. A total of ~22’700 casualties. It is not clear if the figure is just for those killed or combined killed and injured, probably combined. The Panel noted that it got its copy of the report from a “confidential source”.
[v] The UNSMIL used to publish monthly reports on civilian casualties since January 2016, the last report it published was on 22nd May 2019, covering the period from 1st February to 31st March 2019. Archive of its 3 years of reports can be found at “UNSMIL: Human Rights Report on Civilian Casualties”. The World Health Organization (WHO) published its reports, on casualties of the clashes in Libya, irregularly. At the beginning of the ongoing attack on Tripoli since 4th April 2019, the reports were quite frequent, sometimes almost daily, and then became less frequent, before it finally stopped, last report was on 15th July 2019. On top of this, the failure to resolve the conflict resulted in considerable damage to the economy, to property and to infrastructure.
[vi] The General National Congress was elected on 7th July 2012. The House of Representatives was elected on 25th June 2014. Both were elected as transitional legislative bodies.
[vii] Aljazeera Net: “The High Council of State in Libya holds its first session”, 5th April 2016. Of the GNC’s 145 members, 137 are now members of the HCS, 8 members refused to join.
[viii] Libyan Security Sector Legislation: “Constitutional Declaration of 2011- and amendments”.
[ix] Libyan Political Agreement, Article (8.2.a): “Assume the functions of the Supreme Commander of the Libyan army”.
[x] Gaddafi developed and propped his security apparatus to protect him and preserve his rule.
[xi] Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: “The Conflict in Libya”, a testimony by Dr. Wehrey before the US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, 15th February 2019. Excerpt “He [Haftar] has told numerous foreign interlocutors of his intention to implement military rule, often disparaging civilian-led electoral politics”.
[xii] He attacked elected institutions, on 14th February 2014 he announced the dissolution of the General National Congress, the elected legislative body, and the suspension of the transitional constitution. His followers attacked the elected Constituent Assembly, to force them to alter articles in the proposed new constitution of Libya. Aljazeera Net: “Members of the Constituent Assembly have been released”, 30th July 2017. High National Election Commission: “Draft Constitution”, the final copy adopted by the Constituent Assembly in al-Bayda on 29th July 2017.
[xiii] Haftar’s comments about “democracy being unsuitable for Libya came in a telephone call between him and a Saudi based Jordanian clerk, Usama al-Outaibi, the date of the call is 25th July 2014 (Islamic calendar: 28 Ramadan 1435). Haftar said: “… Every People [population] has its situation, Democracy in its country is working, suits them, but like the Sudanese said, he said ‘By Allah America’s Democracy if we accept it [used the verb wear it/put it on] is like someone puts on a new nice suit and goes into the desert, in 40 Degrees Centigrade and the dust [bellowing] to the sky [chuckling] from the ground to the sky, after 2 hours what will the suit look like, the parable here, democracies, in my view, every People [society] has its situation, you see our country is a Muslim country, a Muslim country different to anything else, if we let it [the people] decide, I mean let it decide our affairs, will, we think that our religion is the foundation for everything, our Islamic religion , our customs & noble traditions, we must take [abide by] them, …”. The recoding of the call was first posted on Facebook on 18th May 2015, a copy of it is posted on YouTube (link).
[xiv] Khalifa Haftar, speaking in a meeting with his field commanders at Benina airbase on the 18th September 2015 (link): “… all weapons are permissible for us, by all means and whatever we lay our hands on, we will use, without any hesitation, what we want [from you] resolve, the Might by which we have known you, intensity in confrontation, no mercy when facing the enemy, forget bring [prisoner] and imprison him and what not, there is no prison here, the battlefield is the battlefield, end of the story” this is ordering the execution of prisoners in the battle field, a war crime under International Humanitarian Law. Khalifa Haftar, speaking in another meeting, venue and date not clear, but he was speaking about the siege of Derna, and the video was first published on 25th August 2017 (video link). Haftar said: “When we say siege, we mean siege, so everyone should understand this issue, not that every now and then some people say [asking for permission] ‘We have people who want to go to Hajj.’, or ‘kids [students] want to go to study’ … Can’t fool us with all these pretexts … Forget all this … The siege is siege … The siege means strangulation [pointing his hand to his neck with a strangulation signal] I do not think anyone at that moment can say ‘Let me breathe’ … no medicine, no health care, no petrol, no oil … all the excuses we have closed, no solution is left”, this is ordering a siege to deprive civilians from the very basics indispensable to their survival, a war crime under International Humanitarian Law. Just Security Organization: “Smoking Gun Videos Emerge: US Citizen, Libyan Warlord Haftar Ordering War Crimes”, by Ryan Goodman (Professor of Law at New York University School of Law) and Alex Whiting (Professor of Practice, Harvard Law School), 19th September 2017.
[xv] The International Criminal Court: “Al-Werfalli Case, The Prosecutor v. Mahmoud Mustafa Busayf Al-Werfalli ICC-01/11-01/17”. The first warrant of arrest was issued on 15 August 2017. The second arrest warrant was issued on 4 July 2018. Wanted for the murder of at least 44 people in and around Benghazi,
[xvi] YouTube: “Haftar threatens Europe with Illegal Migrants and Terrorists”, 11th March 2015.
[xvii] Crimes of people kidnapped and their bodies ending up in a tipping sites, or on the side of deserted roads, have become routine. Often corpses of victims show signs of torture and redden with bullet holes in the head and chest, indicating they were killed in an execution style.
[xviii] Human Rights Solidarity: “For the first time, in Two Decades, we have documented the enforced disappearance of women in Libya”, 31st August 2019.
[xix] France24 (Arabic): “US-Russian “tension” complicates conflict in Libya (UN envoy)”, 30th November 2019. The number of the displaced people could be higher, according to Salamé, more than 100,000 Libyans crossed the border to seek refuge in Tunisia without being registered.
[xx] International Organization for Migration (IOM): “DTM Libya, Round No. 26 (June – July 2019)”. Over 130’000 people were displaced in the first four months of hostilities in Tripoli. There are currently over 300’000 Internally Displaced People (IDPs) in Libya.
[xxi] Human Rights Solidarity: “Casualties of Armed Clashes in Libya, January – September 2019”, 29th October 2019.
[xxii] United Nations Security Council: Reports of the Panel of Experts on Libya established pursuant to Security Council resolution 1973 (2011).
[xxiii] FRONTEX, European Border and Coast Guard Agency: “Migratory Routes, Central Mediterranean Route”. Arrivals at Europe’s southern shores, along the Central Mediterranean Route (CMR), grew from 40’000 in 2013 to 181’000 in 2016.
[xxiv] The Globe Post: “EU’s Efforts To Prevent Migration From Libya Does Not Respect or Value Lives”, Vicki Squire, 8th September 2018.
[xxv] The breakdown of security in Libya, made it the easiest transit route for human traffickers to operate. It is a shortsighted policy, to concentrate on blocking migrants at sea, by hampering the work of NGO’s ships conducting search and rescue operations and breaching the international obligation of non-refoulment by returning intercepted migrants and refugees to Libya. It put the lives of thousands of people at risk.
[xxvi] The policies adopted by some European countries in response to populist sentiments tarnished its image with headlines like “Migrant Containment at all Costs: What is Left of European Humanity?”, “Europe’s Determination to Halt African Migration Makes Friends of Dictators” and “EU’s Efforts to Prevent Migration from Libya does not Respect or Value Lives”.
[xxvii] Corriere Della Sera: “Allarme dell’inviato Onu: «Grazie all’aiuto dei russi Haftar prenderà Tripoli»”, 7th December 2019.
[xxviii] Dzsihad Hadelli (Twitter): “Who controls what in Libya?”, 24th November 2019.
[xxix] The one million migrants who came knocking on Europe’s gates in 2015, affected the political landscape in Europe. What will happen if the nightmarish predictions of the (IPCC) become reality?
[xxx] UNDP, Human Development Report 2007/2008: “Climate change and forced migration: Observations, projections and implications”. Excerpt “In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted that the greatest single impact of climate change could be on human migration—with millions of people displaced by shoreline erosion, coastal flooding and agricultural disruption. Since then various analysts have tried to put numbers on future flows of climate migrants (sometimes called ‘climate refugees’)—the most widely repeated prediction being 200 million forced climate migrants by 2050”.
[xxxi] International Committee of the Red Cross: “Mali-Niger: Climate change and conflict make an explosive mix in the Sahel”, 22nd January 2019.
[xxxii] EU members who are dealing with the situation in Libya following their own narrow agendas should cease and desist, it is for the interests of all to have a unified strategy.
[xxxiii] Imitating Gaddafi, who used migration via Libya as a bargaining chip in his negotiations with the European Union. Using the data, on the numbers of arrivals along the Central Mediterranean Route (CMR) provided by FRONTEX: 2008 (39’800), 2009 (11’000) and 2010 (4’500). Gaddafi signed a friendship pact with Italy in August 2008, which committed Italy to long-term investments worth US$5 billion in Libyan infrastructure. Financial Times: “Gaddafi seeks EU funds to curb illegal migrants”, 31st August 2010, excerpt “Gaddafi, Libya’s leader, urged the European Union … to give €5bn a year to his country to fight illegal immigration in the Mediterranean. “Libya turns to the European Union to support what Libya asks because Europe, in the future, might not be Europe any more but might turn black because of all the illegal immigrants”, said Col Gaddafi on the second anniversary of the Libyan-Italian friendship treaty”.
